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Japan's current account surplus rises 29% in Nov; up for 3rd straight month

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@Desert Tortoise

Sounds so simple, right up until you run out of buyers for your debt.

In a currency issuer country without foreign debt obligations, the central bank, (the gov't fiscal authority), can buy the bonds ("the debt") when it wants. Which is what it's been doing, while macro trends remain remain stable. In addition, JGBs, the lowest yielders of all, are fairly popular among foreign investors. So your point isn't really a thing.

As the market becomes saturated with your debt you will have to offer higher interest rates on your bonds to attract buyers

That's what neolibs and others have warning for years, and they've always been wrong. As fiscal debt loads have rocketed, long term interest rates have actually dropped, like to around zero. You're beyond wrong.

Theory is one thing. The real world is the other.

These economic numbers are manipulated and fudged... 

Especially when they profoundly disprove and undermine your personal worldview. LOL.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

"GDP - composition by sector:

agriculture: 1.1% (2017 est.)

industry: 30.1% (2017 est.)

services: 68.7% (2017 est.)

Definition: This entry shows where production takes place in an economy. The distribution gives the percentage contribution of agriculture, industry, and services to total GDP, and will total 100 percent of GDP if the data are complete. Agriculture includes farming, fishing, and forestry. Industry includes mining, manufacturing, energy production, and construction. Services cover government activities, communications, transportation, finance, and all other private economic activities that do not produce material goods.

Source: CIA World Factbook - This page was last updated on Friday, November 27, 2020"

"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?locations=JP"

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

"we are discussing Current Account and export of services, GNP, not domestic (GDP), that is what this article is about"

No, we're not.

We're discussing whether Japan is or is not a Services oriented economy.

Japan is a Services oriented economy.

It's not me saying it.

It's their GDP, the World Bank, IMF and anyone who knows and you care to ask.

Even China and Vietnam will tell you that too.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

The authors of the article make a mistake in terminology. A "Current Accounts" surplus or deficit refers to the difference between annual government revenues and expenditures. This article refers to Japan's trade balance. To economists these terms have defined meanings. JT has misused them.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Japan's national debt is no big issue. Almost all debt is local not international. As a sovereign issuer of money, the gov't can simply choose to print more yen to pay their creditors, or sell more bonds to service the debt at any time.

Even if the debt was ¥1 million billion trillion, unlimited domestic debt = no problem. Just ramp up printing ¥.

Sounds so simple, right up until you run out of buyers for your debt. As the market becomes saturated with your debt you will have to offer higher interest rates on your bonds to attract buyers. This increases the cost of borrowing. It also rolls through your previously issued debt, reducing their value as interest rates rise.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

"What are you actually trying to say?!"

we are discussing the Current Account and export of services, GNP, not domestic (GDP), that is what this article is about.

Japan currently rank 9th on the export of services, below countries like Ireland, Holland which are much smaller in proportion, well this not a disaster but a reflection of the lack of assertiveness of current Japanese culture

1 ( +1 / -0 )

My recommendation, FFP2-masks or better and a more substantial economic stimulus for all citizens and that both fastest possible, let’s say before your so-called vaccines are planned to come. But feel free to discuss Olympics with Bill Gates instead....lol

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

" never managed to get a foothold in the service sector "

You're very, very confused, I'm afraid.

Japan IS a Service economy. Just like the US of A, Germany, France, UK and every developed Nation out there.

That's why they're developed; services comprise the lion’s share of GDP.

"This statistic shows the distribution of the gross domestic product (GDP) across economic sectors in Japan from 2008 to 2018. In 2018, agriculture contributed around 1.14 percent to Japan's GDP, 29.07 percent came from the industry and 69.31 percent from the service sector. For further information, see Japan's GDP."

"https://www.statista.com/statistics/270093/distribution-of-gross-domestic-product-gdp-across-economic-sectors-in-japan/#:~:text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20distribution,further%20information%2C%20see%20Japan's%20GDP."

Services in Japan's GDP: 69.31%.

Japan's is primarily and foremost a services oriented economy.

It's not an economy reliant on fishing, agriculture, manufacturing and even tourism (as this represents a mere 7.8% of national GDP).

What are you actually trying to say?!

-5 ( +0 / -5 )

Peeping_Tom -

As much as i love Japan and japan to excel in the service industry, this is far from happening, Japan has been in limbo in the service industry for 4 decades, never managed to get a foothold in the service sector even when the Japanese financial sector was leading the work. Japanese feel like fish out of water when dealing outside of Japan and was taken for a wide ride by Americans when doing M&A and often lead to disasters, Rockefeller centre, Westinghouse anyone?

And the life is getting more and more difficult for the Japanese, the Chinese are twisting arms of thrid world dictators to swap infrastructure projects etc in Asia and Africa from Japanese to Chinese...

5 ( +5 / -0 )

the national debt may be owned internally but that will need to be returned to its customers (pensioners) with interest one day soon, so the Japanese government better get those money trees growing soon!

2 ( +3 / -1 )

kaimycahl

Wait until they count the country count the losses from the Olympics

If the Olympics is to be performed, there will be viewers world wide. People will see Japan today despite in an unusual circumstance. It will have an impact on Japan's long term goal of making the country a world class tourist destination.

So you will have to wait a few more years to know about "losses".

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Wait until they count the country count the losses from the Olympics

2 ( +2 / -0 )

And that massive national debt, the one every politician is brushing under the carpet ..........

Japan's national debt is no big issue. Almost all debt is local not international. As a sovereign issuer of money, the gov't can simply choose to print more yen to pay their creditors, or sell more bonds to service the debt at any time.

Even if the debt was ¥1 million billion trillion, unlimited domestic debt = no problem. Just ramp up printing ¥.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

These economic numbers are manipulated and fudged with all the time by the gov't to give the most favorable impression.

Not worth the paper they're printed on.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

"Unless Japan gets manufacturing again domestically, at least for high-valued products this income will die out in a couple of decades.”

Incorrect.

Japan's economy is mostly services based; around 70%. The more developed an economy is, the higher the share of the services as % of overall GDP.

ALL developed countries GDP shows a prevalence of Services, rather than manufacturing, least of all agriculture.

Manufacturing is for the likes of China and Vietnam.

Cheaper labour costs.

Japan can afford to outsource and that's exactly what they've done.

"And that massive national debt, the one every politician is brushing under the carpet .........."

Not this debt thingy again.

This debt is domestic, owned by Japan, owed to Japan.

Some just refuse to learn the differences.

-7 ( +2 / -9 )

nice but how long would this last, this is mainly thanks to the hard work in the manufacturing in Japan of a previous generation up to the 90's. Unless Japan gets manufacturing again domestically, at least for high-valued products this income will die out in a couple of decades......and then what? And that massive national debt, the one every politician is brushing under the carpet ..........

3 ( +4 / -1 )

And wage rises? So not great news.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

This is good news, at least there's money coming in

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Suganomics are working.  Plus the virus.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

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