theFu comments

Posted in: Tokyo gov't begins COVID-19 vaccinations for Olympic workers, media See in context

So ... let's do the math.

Today is Juneteenth (June 19). The pfizer vaccine requires 21 days between doses and is considered "fully vaccinated" 2 weeks after the last dose. So ...

Magically, everyone gets their first shot today on June 19th..

Magically, everyone gets their 2nd shot on July 10th.

On July 24, they are considered fully vaccinated. 1 day late for the July 23 start of the games and weeks too late since lots of Olympic volunteers are involved with getting athletes into housing 2 weeks prior to the start of the games.

That's the ideal world.

In the world where their aren't any problems, 40,000 people vaccinated 2500/day would take 16 days to get the first dose. That's within the 21 day delay, so beginning on the 21st day, the 2nd doses all being for another 16 days until completion. That puts this real-world 2nd dose completion on July 26th and for the next 14 days, people will become fully vaccinated.

Of course, some people have uncomfortable side effects after the 2nd dose and can't work for 1-3 days as their bodies work on the antibodies the vaccine activates.

Sadly, it seems this effort is 1 month late, but even the first shot is about 80% effective, so there definitely will be protection for the volunteers. Plus, over 80% of the foreign teams have already been vaccinated according to the IOC, so the volunteers have more to fear from their own Japanese neighbors (and Russian/Chinese teams) than others.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Posted in: Asia has wary welcome for G7's answer to Belt and Road See in context

That's more of a problem in America due to the structure of their government.

The places with the most consistent govts are those with dictators or "elected for life" leaders ... Russia/China/NK/Cuba/Venezuela/Iran/Syria/Belarus. Don't think we want that either.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Posted in: China set to send first crew to new space station Thursday See in context

Blue Origin hasn't shown much at all. 105km altitude, good, but not for an orbit. I look forward to the day when they do more than a typical Disney ride.

NZ's Rocket Lab is doing lots of great space work. They've delivered payloads to 400 km.

There are some other US private companies like Astra getting much less press. Last week launched from Kodiak, Alaska they had a very successful test. 380km altitude and nearly orbital speed.

Virgin is funding a company that nearly died. There are payload weight issues with launching from aircraft. Pegasus does it, but that's for quick-response needs and small payloads. Putting 443 kg up and putting 7000 kg (Falcon 9) up are very different.

Virgin says 300 kg is their payload limit.

Ground launched rockets have needs for bigger infrastructure, though smaller as Electron rockets show is doable, but they also can launch magnitudes of larger, heavier, payloads - which is the point for all rockets ... except Disney rides.

Elon breaks my most important investing rule - if the CEO is constantly in the news, skip the stock.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Iran says nuclear talks closer to deal; Russia says much work remains See in context

The US should walk away. Leave them to stew a few more years, probably until the current all-powerful religious leader of Iran steps down. The Iranian President doesn't have much power.

In 2018, Khamenei said there would be “no war, nor will we negotiate with the United States,”

They should stick to that.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Posted in: Britain considers vaccine passports to restart international travel See in context

I've never needed to show my "yellow card" to enter another country. Guess most countries assume many things based on the passport country?

I did have to show a specific vaccination when returning from an area of a county known to have a specific disease, yellow fever.

I think travel of fully vaccinated people with approved vaccines for the country should be allowed with just pre-flight and post-flight covid testing as an extra safety measure. Call proof of vaccination whatever you like - until covid is like most other diseases, we need this extra safety to prevent spreads to at-risk people.

Viruses don't care about our freedom or privacy. I'd bet people ending up in hospital due to a faked vaccination card wouldn't care either.

I'd love a week in the UK in September.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: N Korea's Kim says must prepare for dialogue and confrontation with U.S. See in context

Keep the economic pressure up. Ignore NK.

All the US wants for North Korea is a state similar to South Korea with open borders and thriving people.

But no American blood is going to be shed to instigate this desire. Americans just don't think much about NK.

It is like a caged rat that is being fed by a neighbor - sometimes that neighbor is China and other times it is South Korea.

If NK wants to discuss a path to prosperity and freedoms for the people, then let's see a 20 yr plan with steps along the way. As the steps are achieved, economic restrictions can slowly be relaxed. Trust, but verify.

China supports NK for political reasons.

SK supports NK for familial reasons.

Does anyone else really think much about NK - unless their fishing boats are in your waters?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: China launches first crew to live on new space station See in context

Congratulations to China and to the people involved!

Fly safe, come home safe! Get/make lots-o-science!

The space shuttle was 1970s technology. The computers used 550W each - there were 5 of them and ran at 25Hz. Originally, they used core memory, not solid state for safety reasons. Tiny computer components are at risk from high energy particles in space which usually cause computer errors every 7-14 days. Error correction counts prove this. The smaller the components are, the more damage a single high-energy particle can cause to more systems.

Since cell phones have become a daily thing, computing tech is very different from what they used on the space shuttles. NASA's X-37 spaceship was built on completely different technology - basically just the aerodynamics and heat handling are related. The X-37 program was taken over by the DoD and they've been flying Boeing X-37b models for years setting duration records almost every mission. That is what current spaceflight looks like. SpaceX is doing it publicly. Boeing, Lockheed, and others are doing their most interesting work in black budgets, not working with NASA or other govts. NASA is 50% about international cooperation. China is specifically excluded by US law after so many successful espionage missions stealing classified US technology.

Space stations are mostly about pressure vessels, power generation, power conservation, and logistics to maintain humans away from Earth. NASA always had emergency return vehicle(s) available connected to the station. The Russian spacecraft may have been from the 1960s, but they held air and could get back to Earth reliably. That's what I fear China is lacking, if they have plans for continuous living inside their space station as it grows.

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Posted in: Why are Olympics going on despite public opposition, medical warnings? See in context

Pandemics typically don't have multiple, effective, vaccines.

The photo is of the FINA Diving World Cup held in Tokyo last month. It was the last qualifying event for countries to get into the Olympics if they weren't already qualified. During the entire event, 1 case of COVID was discovered - at the airport. None were found in daily testing by any of the athletes, coaches, staff, volunteers, the rest of the time for the event. When it was held, few of the people involved were fully vaccinated, yet, the processes were followed and were effective. Mainly the pre-screening requirements for tests prior-to and immediately on arrival did the work.

https://www.straitstimes.com/sport/olympics-organisers-hail-diving-world-cup-after-anti-covid-measures

As previously announced, only one positive Covid-19 case was found, in a team official upon arrival in Japan. The person was quarantined immediately and no close contacts were identified by Japanese authorities, the statement said.

Overall there were 438 participants, including athletes, coaches and team officials, it said.

Too many Chicken Littles in Japan. The sky isn't falling. By the time of the Olympics, I would expect all Chinese, American, Canadian, Chilean, European, Indian, and many other teams teams to be fully vaccinated. Japan will still have the testing protocols - pre-flight, on-landing, and daily along with contact tracing while in Japan. Minimal risks to themselves or to anyone else.

It is the non-vaccinated people, and those who got less effective vaccines from the 2 countries we all know, who are the danger. The IOC has arranged for all Olympic teams to be vaccinated and that is happen where the govt allows. The IOC says over 74% are vaccinated as of last week. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/more-sports/olympics-ioc-pushes-for-more-vaccinations-of-tokyo-bound-athletes/ar-AAKSgCk

It isn't the foreign teams that Japan should worry about.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Posted in: Asia has wary welcome for G7's answer to Belt and Road See in context

Nobody doubts that China has a 50 yr plan.

Western countries are doing well with a 50 month plan, until the next politician is elected and undoes everything the prior person did.

How many local workers do Chinese infrastructure projects hire? For some reason, I thought they imported most of the labor used from China, even for brick carriers.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Posted in: Romania banned from Olympic weightlifting over doping See in context

Breaking the doping rules and not getting caught doesn't mean anyone deserves to win. Good to see that new testing methods are being used on older samples to retroactively take away awards.

$50K isn't much. 1 sponsor can cover that easily. Minimal fine needs to be $500K per incident. Make it cost enough that NOT following the rules blocks a country for decades.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: China set to send first crew to new space station Thursday See in context

Wishing the Chinese much scientific success in this effort. Be safe.

I don't see any "space race" here, just a country expanding knowledge by actually doing it.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Posted in: Warning to athletes: Follow the rules at Tokyo Olympics, or else See in context

The safest place in Japan from COVID will be at the Olympic village.

The mRNA vaccines are highly effective. People with those really shouldn't have any restrictions on travel, provided the daily testing happens.

This isn't the first Olympics in Japan.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Posted in: Media consumers may be reaching limit of streaming services See in context

We switched to OTA broadcasts in 2012 and 1 paid streaming service for $10-ish/month. That's 1 login. We don't sign up for any other accounts free or not. Every few months, we talk about canceling Amazon and switching to some other paid streaming service for a few months, but never get around to it.

There are basically 4 massive media companies in the US. They won't sell to each other. ABC, NBC/Comcast, AT&T, and CBS. If following the money for most other channels, you'll see their parent company ends up being one of those 4, almost always. There are exceptions, but not many.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Posted in: NBCUniversal CEO says Tokyo Olympics could be most profitable ever for company See in context

Our tax money pays for the farcical games, and for foreign companies like this one they'll be the most profitable ever. Forget that the vast majority of us DON'T want the games. Profit for foreign companies apparently trumps the wishes of the people.

If Tokyo didn't want the games, they shouldn't have bid to hold them.

Japan decided to have the games when they could have canceled last year and eaten the loss then. At this point, it is literally too late to stop and has been since January.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Mass vaccination site to fill vacant slots with police, other officials See in context

The science is not complete on the vaccines.

Science is never complete on anything. We can't even agree completely what 1m means.

The chicken pox vaccine science isn't complete either, but your kids probably got it. Same for MMR.

The science around the COVID vaccines - including those with less effective protections - is in. Serious cases of COVID are almost universally prevented by taking any vaccine for at least 6 months, perhaps for the rest of your life. THAT is the science that isn't complete.

Chicken Little wasn't correct. The sky isn't falling. The dangers aren't from the vaccines. It is from COVID. Pay attention to where the risks lie, today.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Posted in: Australia temporarily releases Sri Lankan asylum seeker family after two years island detention See in context

I disagree that keeping the family together was the right decision. When I was sick as a child, only my mother could travel with me for care. Dad had to keep working and other family came to help with the other kids. Seems like special treatment to me.

Australia has a split brain on illegal immigration. The won't let people in but they won't allow them to be deported. It would have been kind to deport them immediately, before anchor babies were created. I think the family should still be deported, and when the children reach the legal age of adult, then they can claim any citizen rights, but their parents should be banned forever from ever entering AUS again.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Posted in: Attacks target polio teams in east Afghanistan;, 4 killed See in context

Massive ignorance is a danger to many people.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Posted in: 2nd arrest made in deadly downtown Austin mass shooting See in context

What was a 17 yr old doing in a bar district at 1:30 am?

6th street requires that everyone be 21 to enter the bars, so walking around on the street?

Where are the parents? He will be tried as an adult, so eventually, we'll learn his name.

Austin has a long history of mass shootings, going back at least to the UT Tower shootings in 1966 when an ex-Marine shot and killed 15 people over 95 minutes from the UT tower. Charles Whitman was found to have a brain tumor during his autopsy.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Posted in: Florida governor signs bill requiring moment for school prayer See in context

My middle school did a moment of silence at the start of the day in the 1970s. Nobody said what the moment was for, because it would be illegal for any adult in a public school to say their intention. Of course, the totally religious students were their to say what it was for.

That school had an informal prayer club that met before school in the library. I was a member mainly because the library had air conditioning, otherwise we'd be waiting for school to start in the heat. Fortunately, my family only lived in that town about 18 months. Nowhere else I've lived were people so quick to point out their church attendance, yet 5 minutes later act completely counter to the claimed teachings for 6 days and 23 hours until the next Sunday sermon.

It took me until around age 17 to understand the point of religion, but I wasn't vocal about it for another 10 yrs to avoid upsetting family and most coworkers. My friends and selected family know my stance. My better half said it was a key reason we are together.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Posted in: Mass vaccination site to fill vacant slots with police, other officials See in context

Shots that don't get into arms are a waste. If prioritized people aren't signing up, then those shots need to go into other arms. Simple.

Read there is a new vaccine that just finished phase 3 trials that has a 90% effectivity. It isn't approved for emergency use anywhere, but it isn't mRNA, it stores at normal refrigerator temperatures and they have predicted 150M doses/month can be created. 30,000 people were part of the trials. All serious COVID cases were avoided. It is a 2-dose vaccine as well.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/06/we-have-another-highly-effective-covid-vaccine-based-on-different-tech/

8 ( +12 / -4 )

Posted in: NBCUniversal CEO says Tokyo Olympics could be most profitable ever for company See in context

Sure. The ‘people of Japan’ paid the majority of the costs.

That's what happens when your political leaders put in a bid, and win, to host the games.

When the games came to Atlanta, I was living here. The locals didn't want them. They were tired of it after all the spending, inconveniences, and traffic. As a local, I only got to see 2 events - very early - no finals. Had 4 family members move into a 1 bdr apartment for 2 weeks. I'd moved to the area just a few months before. The housing market was full of restrictions to prevent people from buying a house and charging 5x the normal price for 2-3 week rental. It was messed up.

That's part of the price.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Posted in: Biden says he supports Suga's plan to hold safe Tokyo Olympics See in context

Can you kindly provide a source to support this claim?

I cannot. I'd hoped it would happen. Think others hoped it would happen too.

We feared J-govt would have meetings for 3 months to decide how to accomplish things. The visus cases were low and are still low in Japan, so I can understand why the Japanese government hasn't pushed harder, faster, for more vaccinations.

We feared that vaccine supplies would be tight. They were until mid-May as the US and European countries sucked up all the best vaccines first. J&J and AZ vaccines are tier-2 and have been available for a long time around the world with the small blood clot risk.

But we all hoped the stars, moon, planets would align and we'd be surprised by J-Govt organization and deployment speed.

OTOH, hope is not a plan. The US took about 6 months to get 35% fully vaccinated with an ex-President fanning the anti-vax flames. Guess he didn't have stock in Pfizer or Moderna?

I have hope that Japanese are smarter and not vaccine hesitant for both Moderna and Pfizer's offers. I have hope that no doses will be wasted. And I have hope that the Olympic bubble can be solved by a 1-shot vaccine from J&J for the people involved.

I will be watching the Olympics - not all of them, just a few sports assuming NBC doesn't embargo those sports to CATV-only channels. The US trials for my favorite sport were this week. Of about 20 events, only 4 were shown on broadcast TV. Call me disappointed in NBC and Comcast. The others were buried on a premium CATV-only channel that raises a CATV subscription by $50/month.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Posted in: China cautions G7 that 'small' groups don't rule the world See in context

Democracy, capitalism and freedom will ALWAYS win over communism and totalitarianism.

Not always in the short term, but over the long term, they will.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Posted in: China cautions G7 that 'small' groups don't rule the world See in context

Who said anything about ruling the world?

Every country has control over which other countries they choose to do business.

China is mostly following the rules around business, but skirts over that line from time to time. As we all know, there's a difference between following the rules and following the spirit of the rules. China knows all about avoiding the "spirit" of rules. We see this daily.

Every snail-mail package leaving China for $0.05 cost because they choose to retain developing nation status in the WTO - and the WTO doesn't have any rules to remove that status - EVER. That's 1 example. If you have

Space program or

Nuclear Programs (either power or weapons),

then the WTO shouldn't provide any subsidies of any sort. Let's bump out the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, Italy, Spain (which don't get any supports), China, Iran, NK, Pakistan, India from all WTO subsidies. Make it a clear choice for those countries to make.

The UN is broken too. No clue how to fix it.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Posted in: Rash of mass shootings stirs U.S. fears heading into summer See in context

I've never heard of a firearm murdering anyone.

I've heard of far too many people USING a firearm to harm other people.

A firearm is just a tool, like any other tool. It has multiple uses, including some that are illegal. The exact same can be said about a car, computer, knife, rope, chair, chlorine, They are all tools used by humans.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

Posted in: Rash of mass shootings stirs U.S. fears heading into summer See in context

And Texas is trying to enact permitless open and concealed carry. An armed society is a polite society? We'll see, but...

Lots of US states have open carry laws without any permit. This is nothing new. Concealed carry without a permit is very new.

Concealed carry in a purse is allowed since 2015 in Mississippi. A briefcase qualifies for the same treatment, both are subject to location limitations. https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2016/05/14/mississippi-gun-laws/84164140/

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Posted in: Biden says he supports Suga's plan to hold safe Tokyo Olympics See in context

Everyone who is vaccinated and doesn't live in Japan thinks it's a great idea.

Bingo! 3 months ago, we all expected Japan to have vaccinated 50% of the population before the Olympics.

Make an Olympic village/contest bubble with only vaccinated people.

The US has millions of J&J vaccine doses about to expire. Multiple US states have been refusing more vaccine shipments and some returned them when demand dropped the last few weeks. Those doses won't do any good outside arms! To get them into arms. Because the time is short, a country has to already have an excellent, high-volume, vaccination program running well. An airplane full of vaccine can get almost anywhere on Earth in 24 hrs. This is a 1-shot vaccine.

Work out the accounting later.

14 ( +17 / -3 )

Posted in: Rash of mass shootings stirs U.S. fears heading into summer See in context

The election and it's aftermath and the effects of the previous election and it's aftermath means that there is a lot of fear, anger, and outrage that extremists will feel justifies violence. This is compounded by the disruption of the usual distractions from, and ameliorations of, those feelings due to the epidemic.

What? The people doing these things are hot-headed men. They don't care about politics.

South side of Chicago isn't exactly the place you head for a peaceful evening.

6th Street is a bar district where thousands of people visit every weekend to party. They close the street - that's normal - to allow people to walk easier from music venue to music venue. It happened at 1:24 a.m. CT - so just before the bars usually close up. Get some drunk men trying to show off and carrying firearms, stuff happens. In my college years, I spent way too much time on 6th Street. Halloween is when they have 120K people come for a party there. Lots of fun!

As for the Savannah shooting, that neighborhood is being revitalized, but looks to be lower income apartments in NE Savannah, just south of the river.

These aren't organized political extremists. They are hot-headed men, being stupid.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Posted in: Hong Kong democracy activist Agnes Chow released from jail See in context

She won't seek asylum in Japan. Just look at the count of approved asylums in Japan. I wouldn't want those odds.

CCP-Chinese - ruling by fear. If Hong Kong still had freedom of speech, she would be talking up a storm, conveying everything that happened while in custody, including the threats to her family who will not leave HK. Young people don't understand that the state has lots of power of intimidation. This applies everywhere. Just that places with free speech laws also will have a press that can use their platforms to apply pressure if someone it wrongly jailed.

Wei Wei took time to learn what the CCP-Chinese deemed as allowed. When was the last time we heard anything from him or he left the country? That is Ms. Chow's future and it was explained to her over the last 6 months.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Posted in: Biden sells G7 on global tax, but U.S. Congress is a hurdle See in context

I want to pay my fair share of taxes, but not one penny more. For about a decade, my taxes were more than my father earned at his peak salary. I was never "wealthy", but I'm not bad with money either.

What corporations like is a predictable financial situation. Change is what they don't like, unless it is clearly in their favor to keep more money. With a few weeks of any changes to tax laws, their CPAs and lawyers will have created a new plan to minimize taxation under the new conditions. If the laws appear to be against other laws, they will sue the govt, hoping to get more favorable tax laws for their specific company.

There's something called the AMT in the US tax laws. Basically, it means that people who are paid lots of money must pay at least that much tax. There are ways around it by putting most of your assets into a trust and companies would find a way to get around something similar, since Congress will always make tax laws with loopholes.

To remove the loopholes, taxes need to be very easy to calculate for everyone. Of course, the accountant lobby will be against that, since they like their $250K/yr jobs.

By having the G-7 all involved in this 15% minimum, it is more likely that other countries where their is rule of law will adopt the same rules. But regardless, the taxes will be passed through to customers. That's how companies pay for everything - well - that's how profitable companies pay for everything. The Tech industry has investors who will thrown $50M at people who have never made any profit. Tesla was like that for a long time. I'm not certain whether recent profits have covered all the years of losses yet.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

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